O'Reilly ECT Day #2- Incantations for Muggles: The Role of Ubiquitous Web 2.0 Technologies in Everyday Life

The talk began with this basic premise: How do you balance needs of the users with emerging technologies? The goal of the talk was to use different lens on emerging tech and end-users. The backside of technology development is people. How to segment people which are not like "you" - don't design for oneself or one size fits all. There are four life stages each with a different set of properties- stage one - friends, attention, play/leisure, sex, consumption; stage #2 - Sex, friends , money , play/leisure, labor; stage #3 - labor, family, money, power, property; stage #4 - family, health, religion, hobbies, friends. technology adoption and priorities reflect these four life stages. Corporations are currently driving technology. Corporations need to satisfy shareholders reflecting continuous growth. To monetize the interaction people the user must be passionate about the technology. Unhappy users don't make products stick. Four aspects of modern technology: persistence (never goes away) searchability (ability to find what you want), replicability (what is truth?, the ability to copy), Invisible audiences - (don't have a sense who is in the audience- you don't know who your are talking). All rules of privacy is changing. When things really go mobile will create a new shift in practice - combining location and technology.

O"Reilly ECT - The Coming Age of Magic -Mike Kuniavsky, Co-founder and Principal, ThingM

Ubiquitous computing is moving away from traditional platforms (PC, PDA, smartphone) to include non traditional platforms such running shoes. In 1995 General Magic designed their wireless handheld interface as a desktop. This interface had limited functionality partially due to the desktop metaphor. Extending the desktop metaphor to a wireless device doesn't work with ubiquitous computing. Mike is advocating the use of existing cultural understanding (magic) to describe the behavior of ubiquitous computing objects. Design principles- every day objects (shoes, hammers, hats, plates), they are familiar, physical, no screen , not human, not superhuman, reinforcing the fact that we don't believe in magic. Ambient orb from Ambient Devices looks like a crystal ball. the Nokia medallion - allows communication. Wands (Nintendo Wii), Hitachi Magic wanted. Concept of wands already exists based on embedded technology. The move towards "magic" devices is already happening. The age of magic is coming. Using the magic metaphor should not be an excuse for poor design.

Jeff Hawkins

Jeff is the original founder and designer of Palm. He described human function and how his new company Numenta is developing next generation for intelligent computing. Jeff stated that you can’t get computers to act as humans- visual perception, auditory perception, somatosensory perception, Languages, Adaptive behavior, planning, thinking etc….

What is preventing this? Common wisdom believes:

• Computers are not powerful enough - no longer the case

• Brains are too complex to understand
  

• Brains work on quantum principles
  

• Brains are magic

Reality is not too complex, don’t work on strange principles and we just didn’t understand how they work.

Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) –

1) Creates a model of its worked

2) Recognizes new patterns

3) Predicts

Generates behavior Numenta Platform for Intelligent Computing (NuPIC)

Simple vision system –

HTM applications areas of focus:

1. Automotive
2. Gaming
3. Network modeling
4. Drug discovery
5. Vision systems
6. Market analysis
7. Business modeling
8. Nurture applications
9. Anything requiring prices timing or high order temporal data
10. Music
11. Language
12. Robotics

Werner Vogels, Vice President & Chief Technology Officer, Amazon.com

Mr. Vogels is the VP and CTO of Amazon.com. His talk focused on how Amazon has created an the backbone which can enable small start-ups to reach scale by using the Amazon's infrastructure. The talk centered around how to build a business around ideas verses resources. Amazon services is designed to help a launch new businesses. Building an architecture to deal with peaks 3-4X the average daily transactions is difficult. The 70/30 switch 70% on heavy lifting (infrastructure) and only 30% time investing in actual product development. Amazon chart - service oriented - 150 services together to create a single page. Three parts of infrastructure = EC2 - Compute, S2- Storage - SQS which does Messaging= Web scale computing. Web-scale computing turns huge fixed costs into a variable cost. scalable-increase or decrease capacity impacts cost Effective - low rate pay-as you-go, Reliable and Simple- SOAP and REST based computing. Simple storage service 15 cents per Gigabyte per month and 20cents a GB data transfer. Why can't the GDS follow this model. Rather than owning the transaction, how about owning the infrastructure?
.

VC Forum - Web 2.0 and Wall Street

Panel with Tim O"Reilly and William H. Janeway, Vice Chairman, Warburg Pincus and
Peter Bloom, Managing Director, General Atlantic LLC. What can Web 2.0 learn from the financial markets and visa versa? Attributes of Web 2.0 demonstrated on Wall Street. Speed matters. e-Trade strived for a 9 second trade. Average trade on NYSE is now 30 milliseconds. A thousand transaction a second have become the norm. How does this compare with travel transactions which is measured by 2-3 second response time? Web 2.0 economy - network intelligence phenomenon. Focus on transactional efficiency. The pressure of Wall Street to push down the cost of transaction cost down to zero. Profits as "agents" was no longer possible (sound familiar?). Those who had been agents became traders. This is just like a GDS becoming a travel agent (e.g. Travelocity). Now promoting marketplace based on automated trading systems. Technology turning agents into principles. The interaction of computers and human beings. Now computers trade with each other but are shut off switching to human trading during a major drop.

Jeff Jonas - IBM Chief Scientist

Using an story of a cheating Vegas dealer illegally working with a customer to illustrate how data silos don't interact, Jeff introduced the concept of "Enterprise Amnesia". In this story the dealer and customer share a common address - clearly a signal that something is wrong. "Enterprise Amnesia" is when marketing, HR an security departments don't share a common database. Enterprise Intelligence requires persistent context. Data and queries in a single data space. Federated search - just in time context.

Sequence neutrality - identifying the same customer in a database. Database drift is natural and the bigger the wearhouse the more this problem persists.

Live from the O"Reilly Emerging Technology Conference

I am blogging today from the O'Reilly Emerging Technology Conference in San Diego. In 2006, my friend and colleague Philip Wolf coined the phrase Travel 2.0 to describe the new focus on user-generated content and improved user interfaces in online travel. To all deference to Philip, it was Tim O"Reilly who actually coined the original Web 2.0 phrase to describe the user generated and interface changes that is impacting the entire technology industry. Attending pure technology conferences such as this one, always reinforces the fact that the travel industry continues to lag behind the general tech curve. I will be blogging all day on each topic covered: The agenda can be found here.

After the opening remarks, the first speaker is Jeff Jonas, Distinguished Engineer and Chief Scientist, IBM Entity Analytic.

New Joint Study with PhoCusWright

In an effort to answer my prior blog entry regarding the commodification of self-booking technology, I am pleased to announce a new joint research study with PhoCusWright. As most of you know I have a long association with Philip's organization as an analyst and subcontractor on multiple projects over the last 6 years. In 2003, we jointly published a study on Dynamic Packaging technology. In a similar fashion this new study will look at corporate travel technology trends particularly as it relates to the implementation of Travel 2.0 technology. We are targeting late May- early June for the publication. It will be available as part of the PhoCusWright Channel as well as available both at the PhoCusWright and Travel Tech Consulting online stores.

Here's the abstract:

Abstract: Traditionally the corporate travel market has lagged in the adoption of emerging technologies. Despite this fact, technology for self booking, corporate portals, meetings management, business intelligence, expense management, risk management and the aggregation of content has become a key part of the travel management process. Services, such as consulting and account management also depend heavily on technology for analysis and support. With the emergence of Travel 2.0 technologies in the consumer market, how are corporate providers reacting to these trends? This study will take a look at key TMC and corporate travel software applications reviewing current functionality with an eye on future development. The research will showcase unique product offerings from software developers and TMCs reviewing vendors' plans for adding Travel 2.0 features such as user generated content and rich Internet UIs using technologies such as AJAX.

The World is Flat

In his 2005 book, The World is Flat, Thomas Friedman describes the unplanned cascade of technological and social shifts that effectively leveled the economic world, and “accidentally made Beijing, Bangalore and Bethesda next-door neighbors.” I experienced this phenomenon first hand recently evaluating suppliers for a consulting engagement. When it came down to the short list of suppliers that met this DMO's requirements, two companies emerged providing the best fit for my customer's needs. Both of the companies have headquarters in the US, but have approximately 90% of their employees in Asia (India and Sri Lanka). Over last two-three years the majority of travel software companies have either outsourced part of their development to off-shore centers or formally opened branches in places like Bangalore or Saint Petersburg. Eastern Europe and Asia are not only catching up fast, but are quickly passing the US in highly skilled software engineers. To better understand the global impact of the flatting of the world phenomenon take a look at this video: http://www.scottmcleod.org/didyouknow.wmv

Are corporate self booking tools becoming a commodity?

I have been involved with corporate self-booking tools since their inception in the early 1990s. At that time companies such as TravelNet and TTG (now TRX) pioneered a new concept allowing business travelers to book online, but restraining their activity through policy enforcement. Now in 2007 where corporate booking tools have become a mainstream part of a good travel management program, innovation has stalled resulting in a common look and feel across vendors. Many of the corporate tools have embraced the familiar consumer matrix approach pioneered by Orbitz (and quickly copied by Expedia and Travelocity), but other emerging trends are slow to come to the marekt. This is in contrast to new consumer oriented Travel 2.0 companies such as Kayak, Farecast and Farecompare are who are blazing new territory incorporating tools such AJAX and mash-ups to change the stale booking flow common on the big OTAs, but what about the corporate market? Where is the next innovation in corporate tools? My belief is that innovation has already begun and lies in the underlying platform rather than the UI. Yes corporate tools should embrace drag and drop capabilities enabled by AJAX, but at the end of the day you still need to enter your dates, select your flights, hotel and car. How these tools integrate disparate sources and user generated reviews and content will be a space to watch in 2007.

Mobile Photo Sharing

M:Metrics released some detailed stats on 3G usage that should raise a flag for all in the travel industry. If you don't know, 3G refers to the third generation wireless networks that provide more features and faster speeds than 2G networks. What caught my eye was the stat which concerns photo-sharing, which skyrockets to 45.1% monthly penetration among 3G users, up from 17.1% of non-3Gers. The bottom line is that next generation cell phone users are increasingly depending on their camera phones. What does this mean for the travel industry?

If you combine the growth of user generated content with this increased photo-sharing usage, the picture should be clear. Travel suppliers, especially hoteliers, need to be sensitive to the fact that an upset customer will not only blast the hotel at review sites such as Trip Advisor or IGUGO, but will increasingly use their cell phones to document short comings of a property augmented by real- time pictures posted to blogs or photo-sharing sites such as Flickr. The old cliche that a picture paints a thousand words says it all.

Peer to Peer Computing in Travel?

First they brought us Kazza and then Skype. Janus Friis and Niklas Zennstrom are now working on a new peer to peer (P2P) application that is taking on TV. Their Venus project, expected to be called Joost changes the playing field again by allowing users to view video content though on demand P2P network

Is there any value of a P2P network in the travel space? Absolutely! The current trend to create a site for online travelogues is a common Travel 2.0 business model. What if the content did not need to be uploaded to a single site, but rather accessed pictures and video content housed on an individual's hard drive. Unlike the Kazza implementation, Friis and Zennstrom are working with content owners to launch Joop with targeted advertising as part of the delivery. Behavioral targeting is a major trend in Web advertising. A P2P network could deliver targeted ads based on information extracted from multiple computers. The new Joost network is based on this type of targeted advertising and a similar application could be developed for online travel.

Article for The Beat

Today, the Beat (part of ProMedia http://www.promedia.travel/) released an article I created regarding the gap between emerging technologies and the travel industry. The focus of the article is on how the corporate travel industry continues to be behind the technology adoption curve.

If you are not a subscriber to the Beat, I strongly encourage you to become a subscriber. The team at the beat is lead by Jay Campbell, Chief Content Officer. While at Business Travel News (BTN) Jay constantly pushed through the barriers within the industry to uncover the underlying key issues in the corporate travel world. At the Beat, Jay is joined by David Jonas and Mary Ann McNulty two seasoned journalists who know the industry inside and out. Jay founded the Beat just a few years ago, but it has clearly emerged as the number one source for breaking news in all sectors of the travel industry. It was my privilege to contribute this article to the Beat. Let me know if you have any feedback.

Eye for Travel CRM Part II

I am glad to report that the remaining speakers at the recent Eye for Travel CRM conference in San Fransisco improved significantly from the first panel, (my prior blog entry). Eye for Travel still doesn't get some of the basics of running a conference in 2007 (free WiFi, plugs for laptops, active blog), but despite these short comings, the Eye for Travel CRM conference was very valuable.

My biggest "aha" moment came at the end of day one with the session entitled "Discover how integrating CRM with Pricing and RM can maximize revenue" (Session Four on Day 1). My readers will recall my frequent theme concerning true dynamic packaging - hooking into existing revenue management systems (RM) on the back-end and CRM systems on the front end to deliver content that maximizes revenue for the supplier while targeting the company's best customers. This theme was at the heart of this session. Here's some highlights:

• Rom Hendler, VP of Strategic Marketing at The Venetian Resort Hotel Casino gave an excellent review of how difficult it is to identify who is the best customer. He showed various ways to measure the profitability of a given customer (frequency, amount of purchases, etc..) demonstrating that defining the best customer is not a simple measure of revenue generated by the guest
• Dave Pelter , VP of Supplier Development & Pricing at Farecast showed how their technology is the next evolution in meta-search. Farecast provides the consumer the ability to target low prices through their predictive fare logic challenging traditional RM systems
  
• Cameron Davies, Sr. Manager, Customer Centric Revenue Management, Walt Disney Hotels and Resorts showed how understanding consumer demand and requirements should be part of a comprehensive revenue management strategy

This and other sessions that featured airlines (Delta, British Airways, JetBlue, Southwest, Alaska & American), hoteliers (Best Western, Starwood, Fairmont) and OTAs (Travelocity, Expedia) provided a wealth of insight into various segment's efforts to capture loyalty and provide a common personalized approach to the customer at every touch point.

Eye for Travel CRM conference

I am attending a new conference today in San Francisco: "CRM and the Travel Industry" organized by the Eye for Travel organization. So far, the main focus of the speakers has been on customer service (training employees on the importance of the customer). There is no doubt that the human interaction element of CRM is a key in keeping customers happy, but so far there has been limited discussion of technology that is needed to provide the infrastructure to support CRM at every touch point. Jon Marnela from Fairmont did mention the fact that a consumer's profile is sent down to the property's PMS system. British Airways establishes a score based on corporate relationships and influence to develop a score for each traveler

In my view is that CRM is more than customer care. Yes it is true that technology is not a CRM solution, but without the proper infrastructure, executing on CRM will likely fails. So far there has been no mention of Web 2.0 and the new role of customer generated content on the CRM process.

Dynamic Packaging or Shopping Cart?

When I authored the report on Dynamic Packaging I had high hopes that we were on the brink of a new era; one which the value of a customer and the need for inventory management were both satisfied through an end-to-end solution. I apologize for using this hackney phrase, but my reference to the concept of end-to-end in this context means satisfying customer needs in a profitable manner. In that research study I described the ultimate dynamic packaging system where the users preferences were stored, filtering content, while supply levels had a "just in time" quality, controlled by direct connections into revenue management software. Well its 2007 and we've had some movement such as the success of HBSI in connecting to a variety of PMS. Some of the Travel.2.0 start-ups have implemented personalization techniques using AJAX, but overall no one has implemented a true end-to-end implementation

A question prompted by some work with a new client concerns the true nature of a dynamic packaging system verses a travel shopping cart. The ability to simply put items in a basket with opaque prices that adjusts the total based on a rules engine is a typical way "dynamic packaging" is being implemented today. Examples of this style of shopping cart based dynamic packaging can be found at a number of sites using a variety of technology solutions. The key element missing in these implementations is not dynamic packaging, but dynamic pricing. The ability to adjust the overall price based on relationship between the components and ultimately the value of the customer is missing from most of these implementations. This vision of the ultimate in dynamic packaging is still an admirable objective, but so far the market has not reached this ultmate goal.

Sabre and G2 Collaboration

Travel Weekly reported today that Sabre is exploring possible collaboration with G2 SwitchWorks. This is based on a comment made by Sabre CEO Sam Gilliland in response to a question from a Sabre employee on December 12th. Texas Pacific Group one of the private equity companies that purchased Sabre also holds a 20% stake in G2 Switchworks. What does all this mean? This could be a good test on whether the equity buyout truly impacts Sabre's strategic direction. Some pundits have voiced their view that the equity buyout will free up Sabre from the constraints of public ownership allowing the company to innovate. Another camp, looks at the acquisition as a short term cash cow for the new owners, who will likely seek to reduce costs at Sabre while positioning the company for a future sale. Remember that private equity's primary interest is bringing a good return back to its investors. If Sabre does pursue a relationship with G2, this would be a sign that the traditional "not invented here" philosophy is changing. G2 has been struggling to differentiate itself in light of the new GDS/airline agreements. How could the two really work together? If G2 continues to position their solution as an aggregation tool a layer above the GDS it would not be in Sabre's best interest to partner with a company who is essentially eliminating their traditional single source GDS model. On the other hand where the aggregation point lies is not as important as who owns middleware. G2 could benefit if Sabre where to endorse the G2 travel agent point of sale tool and help distribute it to the large Sabre subscriber base. This is an interesting story to watch as we enter the new era of private equity owned GDS.

Sabre and Private Equity Buyouts

The announcement today that two private equity firms are buying out Sabre is part of a bigger trend. Over the last two years, investors have been putting billions of dollars in private equity firms. Recently private equity has bought out firms with such well known brands as Clear Channel, Readers Digest, Eddie Bauer, Burger King, Hertz, Domino's Pizza and AMC Entertainment. What is behind this trend? There are two camps of thought. The first highlights the benefit of removing a company such as Sabre from public scrutiny where financial details are required to be shared as a publicly traded company. The other view of this trend is a bit more skeptical. One needs to remember that the private equity buyouts are intended to provide a profit for the equity investors. This is often realized when these buyout companies are in turn sold. The first step the equity owners take is to cut expenses at these companies. Often, private equity firms borrow money to buy a company and then keeps on borrowing. The private equity firms can borrow the money in the company's name and then can keep the money themselves. This saddles the company with the debt while the private equity firms continue to siphon money out of these companies. This is all fine and well as long as the company continues to bring in a substantial cash flow, but if things change the heavy debt could be a problem. So which scenario drove the Sabre deal? When private equity offers an acquisition price above the current stock price, companies such as Sabre have no choice but to accept the offer as the short term benefit to shareholders is clear. As with the Blackstone buyout of Travelport and the subsequent purchase of Worldspan the jury is still out on whether this will truly be good for the travel industry. My concern is that with the focus of private equity in cutting costs, the new owners of Sabre, Galileo and Worldspan may decide to eliminate needed R&D and slow the process of moving off legacy mainframe technology to more open systems.

TRX buys Hi-Mark

Today's announcement by TRX on the acquisition of Hi-Mark marks a significant step in the area of corporate travel data management. Over the last 6-7 years Hi-Mark has successfully marketed their data management solution to many large corporate buyers. Despite this success, Hi-Mark's position in the market is strongest with second tier TMCs and corporate buyers. By acquiring Hi-Mark, TRX expands their reach to the mid to lower part of the market. TRX's DATATRAX is an extremely robust platform with a price tag only affordable to the high end of the market. With this acquisition TRX not only expands its reach, but eliminates a major competitor. It is clear that corporate travel data management is still a wide open market, particularly as procurement takes a more active role in travel management.

Travelport Worldspan merger

After years of speculation, today's announcement of the merger between Travelport and Worldspan came as no great shock to anyone in the industry. The only surprising aspect of the deal is the lack of a competitive offer from Amadeus. As far as a fit, Amadeus and Worldspan would have been more complementary. Travelport has been suffering pre and post the Blackstone acquisition from an inability to easily integrate disparate entities and systems such as eBookers, Gulliver's and Galileo. The task of integrating Worldspan and Galileo is huge, and most likely will result in the Worldspan platform and brand fading from the marketplace. The biggest winner in this transaction is Rakesh Gangwal, whose golden parachute from the transaction is substantial. Considering his missteps at both USAir and Worldspan, his multi-million dollar payout seems unjust, but clearly reflects the benefit to Worldspan's stockholders not the industry at large. During his time at the helm at Worldspan, Gangwal saw the errors of his continued support of the "Worldspan inside" strategy with the loss of business from Expedia , Priceline and Orbitz. Worldspan's insistence to "stay the course" in regards to not launching their own online retail brand was a key factor in their demise. With executive compensation not reflecting actual performance, no wonder the traditional players in the industry are unable to anticipate the next wave of technology disruption.