Smartphone Market Share Influences Download versus Mobile Web Debate

In a recent article from Media Post a software application developer from Istanbul, Turkey attending a conference in San Jose, California, voiced his opinion that the US does not understand the importance of the Mobile Web. This article reminded me of the panel discussion I moderated at the PhoCusWright @ITB conference in Berlin earlier this year where the subject of downloadable applications was debated against the advantage of the Mobile Web with a panel of European mobile travel experts. During that discussion a common argument in favor of the Mobile Web approach was the ability to have the application available on all devices with a mobile Web browser. On the side of downloadable apps, the ability to use the GPS location capability and ability to balance the processing load between the network and device were common arguments for the downloadable app approach. Given the explosion of app stores from device manufactures and wireless network providers , it is clear that the downloadable approach has been recognized as an important channel for application delivery. So given this debate, what is the right approach for travel companies who want to build and deploy mobile apps?

The answer lies in the recent 2nd quarter market share numbers published by Canalys. Here is the worldwide smartphone adoption numbers:
From a global perspective the growth of Apple's iPhone is phenomenal. But the true insight comes from the individual regional market share.

Clearly in the US market RIM and Apple dominate the smartphone market.


Contrast this with the EMEA market share












Now compare this with the numbers for Asia Pacific:

As you see Apple and RIM do not even qualify for their own category and are grouped into Other.
The simple conclusion is this:
1) Clearly smartphones are a growing category.
2) Areas of the world dominated by Nokia have not felt the true impact of the smartphone adoption.
3) Travel companies need to understand the specific smartphone adoption market share percentages for their clients when planning a mobile strategy.
On a long term basis as recently voiced by Google, browser-based applications may dominant, but for the short term (3-5 years), downloadable apps will be the most logical path. Keep in mind that smartphone penetration is much greater for frequent travelers who are early adopters of smartphones. Developing applications for the leading smartphone devices: RIM, iPhone and perhaps Windows Mobile is the most logical path to follow. Nokia's recent announcement concerning their new relationship with Microsoft is an obvious attempt by both companies to fight the growth of RIM and iPhone.

Is History Repeating Itself with Google Android?

I am old enough to remember the early days of personal computing. In fact the first Mac I worked on did not have its own hard drive and thus required switching out floppies to do any simple computing task. My first non-Mac "personal" computer was a suitcase sized Compaq which ran DOS and Lotus 1-2-3. The advantage of the Mac GUI was obvious. When the first version of Windows was released it contained many Mac like functions and through later releases soon became the dominate GUI for PCs. Despite Apple's initial innovation, Windows based-PCs are the standard.

I am starting to question whether history is repeating itself on mobile devices. There is no dispute that Apple's iPhone represents a game changer in the world of mobile technology. With the first practical mobile Web browser, the iPhone delivers a vastly improved Internet mobile experience, though the telephone aspect of the device is still in need of enhancement. The Google mobile platform is in its infancy, but we should see Android based mobile phones by Q4 of this year. Google has announced an agreement with the Open Handset Alliance, a consortium of 34 handset manufacturers, carriers and chipmakers that have said they plan to support Android products and services. As an open-development platform, third party applications will flourish. Apple's iPhone is clearly the innovator, but the market will likely be flooded with iPhone clones with 18-24 months. Will the Android platform do to the mobile phone what Microsoft Windows did to the PC market? The answer is not completely clear as the mobile industry has many operating systems - Symbian, Palm and of course Windows Mobile. There are also a variety of development environments including Java and Brew. In addition to an innovative design, Apple's iPhone also shifted a significant part of the revenue from AT&T to Apple, something very much on the minds of all mobile carriers. This economic shift plus the power of Google to dominate the mobile market is something to watch as Google Android enabled phones appear later this year.

WiMax verses 3G, 4G and Beyond

The Tech industry has been talking about ubiquitous computing for some time. Any observer would agree that it has become common place for business people to multi-task - e.g. listening to a speaker while reading one's email, but the fact is that this only the beginning of our always connected future. An interesting battle has emerged between the traditional telecom players who are offering 3G (Third generation) wireless networks with some now talking about 4G capabilities. An alternative trend is the emergence of WiMax, a broadband technology that could be thought of as Wi-Fi on steroids. With telecom and tech companies such as Sprint and Intel embracing WiMax, many perceive the wireless roadmap as a "fork in the road". Rather than 3G verses WiMax, a blending of the two technologies seems to be more likely. Devices such as the Apple I-Phone with built in WiFi point to a hybrid future where both traditional telecom and WiMax networks co-exist is more likely. The wild card in this game is Google. For many months the blogosphere has been chasing rumors that Google is building their own mobile device that will compete head to head with traditional offerings from Nokia, LG and Motorola as well as the Apple iPhone. No matter which network becomes dominant the days of the always connected traveler are here to stay and all travel companies must develop m-commerce strategies to reflect this fact.