The Splinternet

Forrester analyst Josh Bernoff recently posted a blog regarding the end of the golden age of the Web and the rise of the Splinternet. As it name implies, the new environment consists of multiple devices with content and audiences fragmented across these platforms.
What does this mean for the future of travel distribution? This represents both a challenge and opportunity for travel marketers. The splintering of platforms and content means that a travel supplier or intermediary can no longer expect their single Web presence to be enough to communicate with their customers. The opportunity comes in the ability to personalize the experience based on the customer segment and platform capabilities. We've seen this already where unique iPhone apps have functionality such as augmented reality that only applies to a smartphone device. The whole downloadable app phenomenon provides the delivery mechanism to enhance this personal relationship with the customer.
New platforms such as the iPad and other tablets coming to the market will continue to cause the need for multiple development paths but providing unique experiences that are only possible based on the nature of the device is also a new opportunity. In a talk this week at Stanford University, Chris Anderson, Editor and Chief of Wired Magazine predicted that the tablet would eventually replace the lap top as the primary mobile computing device. As part of the Conde Nast publishing group, Chris was very bullish on how the tablet provides the immersive experience of a magazine while the flexibility and endless content of the Web. The true power of these devices will come in new applications that have yet to be developed.
The traditional travel industry players has always been slow to embrace new technology allowing new entries to capitalize on it and build solid businesses. One just needs to look at the dominance of the four major OTAs to see how this has happened on the Web. Why didn't American Express become one of these major OTAs? A similar phenomenon is happening in the mobile world with new entries such as TripIt gaining momentum (and investment) offering itinerary management and mobile travel services. With the advent of the Splinternet, the travel industry must embrace this new multi-platform and multi-content world and drive innovation or be a victim of losing control of the the customer to new market entries that understand this opportunity.

Innovation in Online Travel

The general media is a buzz with stories about the lack of innovation of the major OTAs. A recent Forrester Report which shows consumers' frustration with online travel planning and booking is cited. The report stated that many consumers are fed up with the complicated process of planning and booking travel online. Part of this frustration concerns added fees, what we like to label in the travel industry as ancillary revenue. The article points to a resurgence of bookings through traditional travel agents.
From a different angle a recent VentureWire report states that VCs are funding start-up travel sites such as Oyster and LeiusreLink. This article further reinforced the concept that there is a lack of innovation from the four large OTAs (Expedia, Travelocity, Orbitz and Priceline).
Both media articles site lack of innovation, but both draw different conclusions. The Forrester research is being cast in the light of a return to traditional travel agents while the VentureWire WSJ blog points to an opportunity of new start-ups. So what is happening with online travel? Are the OTAs on a path to their own demise? Is online travel going to die based on the resurgence of traditional travel agencies?
In this era of sensational news reporting, dramatic statements forewarning the death of popular OTAs through renewed competition from traditional travel agents or new travel niche brands help sell papers (or in this day and ag, electronic articles). A key point missing in both these articles is a realization that the online travel market is at a mature level. Traditional, Crossing the Chasm analysis, points to multiple adopter segments.
By definition the late majority are conservatives. This market is naturally skeptical and thus resistant to change. The online travel market has reached the mainstream and thus includes many infrequent travelers who are not comfortable with booking travel online. Even the cliche quote by Henry Harteveldt " Could your mother-in-law use your Web site without having to call you for help?’ The answer is always no" is somewhat blind to the fact that my mother-in-law is an infrequent traveler, part of the late majority (actually she is more of a laggard) and thus has characteristics that are different from frequent travelers (who are often innovators, early adopters, and early pragmatists) who have grown accustomed to the online travel process.
Despite the generalities of these articles I do believe that greater innovation is needed from the OTAs to maintain their market position. Most of the start-up competition comes from niche plays such as Oyster (hotel reviews) or LeiusreLink (vacation rental). Innovation in travel planning is the focus of sites such as Uptake and Triporati. Whether it is true technology innovation or business innovation, carving out pieces of the all encompassing OTAs is a natural market evolution. OTAs will react to these niche start-ups if and when they see a direct correlation to revenue loss. For example when Expedia, Inc. recognized the importance of user generated hotel reviews it purchased TripAdvisor. Movement to traditional travel agents may be occurring, but it may be limited to specific segments and does not mean the death of OTAs. In various research I have conducted over the past few years interviewing traditional travel agents, all agents recognize that the OTAs are their direct competitors and customers often quote OTA prices during the selling conversation. As a result, agents use tools such as Agentware to search the Web for competitive fares.
I agree that OTAs are not a replacement for human beings (that is why each has deployed a call center for support), but for routine trips they do perform well. Quoting the appropriate ancillary fees is an industry problem that is being worked on by ARC, the GDS and the airlines to simplify the online quote process. No the OTAs are not in danger of extinction by niche players or traditional travel agents as all will co-exist with the consumer making the ultimate decision based on their comfort with technology and experience with the online process.

What do the Expedia PPC agreement and the Kayak acquistion of Sidestep have in common?

Two stories from late 2007 and early 2008 signal a shift in the online travel model. In November 2007 at the PhoCusWright conference in Orlando, Expedia announced a new agreement with IHG that included a pay per click (PPC) compensation model. The acquisition of SideStep by Kayak this month is another significant development. How are these two announcements related? The Kayak/Sidestep merger is a clear validation of the referral model, but also demonstrates the need for scale to be an online travel player globally. The Expedia PPC contract element reflects the simple fact that many people shop OTAs and end up buying at supplier sites a phenomenon that has been validated by PhoCusWright and Forrester research. For Expedia, being paid for referrals represents a new and important revenue stream. You then add Travel 2.0 players such as Farecast, Kango and the Nile Guide, and the value of search and travel planning tools represents a major growth area for online travel here in the US and globally. As the economy softens the value of the referral model is likely to increase as suppliers scramble to fill airline seats and hotel beds.