IPhone Hits the Enterprise

With eWeek reporting that 70% of the Fortune 500 are evaluating iPhone for the enterprise, the corporate travel industry needs to take note. From my view the debate is over regarding download verses mobile Web. Transcoding your Web page for the mobile browser is still important, but the value of a downloadable app for a company's brand and the ability to personalize the interaction with the customer is unmatched. The phone is becoming more and more of a sensor (accelerometer, compass, temperature, etc..) . The penetration of the iPhone in the corporate market is making a downloadable iPhone app for travel companies a priority. Apple has announced record profits and the iPhone is a big part of this. Apple's success in the corporate market is directly due to the consumer acceptance of the device.

Global View

I am writing from Cannes, France where I gave a speech this morning on emerging technology trends that impact airline e-commerce. I represented PhoCusWright at the conference and I was able to draw on some great stats and trends from a number of PhoCusWright research pieces. This speech was for the Amadeus' airline e-commerce conference. Last week I was in Los Cabos, Mexico giving another speech for the Amadeus' LATM corporate travel leaders symposium. Tomorrow through Monday I am taking some time off and my wife who traveled with me to Southern France and I will explore the French Riviera.

I wanted to write briefly about the global perspective I have gained over the last 12 months. My work in Kuwait had me traveling to the Middle East once a month for the last year. Often I stopped in Europe on the return trip to either attend a conference or meet with a client. I have worked in Europe with different travel IT and software companies many who deal with airline customers. The Kuwaiti engagement tapped my corporate travel technology and leisure distribution experience.

There are a couple of points which all markets have in common:
1) Every segment of the travel value chain worldwide is under pressure from low cost competition. Whether its LCCs for the airlines, alternative or direct distribution for the GDS, or online competition for the TMCs, every sector needs to drive greater efficiency to lower costs.
2) Mobile technology is beginning to emerge as a major new battleground where traditional suppliers and distributors are being challenged by innovation from new market entries.
3) Airline Fare Families and the airline focus on ancillary revenue is here to stay. This is good news for the airlines who are really suffering. Fare families creates a more logical relationship between services and price.
4) Local Carries are a global phenomenon that is driving consumers in emerging markets online
5) Corporate travel trends are the same globally, the differences are around the level of maturity in the market. Latin America is a particular challenge as major airlines have pulled inventory out of the GDS in markets such as Brazil.
6) The global economy is beginning to rebound with travel increasing, but premium travel is still not near the levels from 2007.

I feel blessed that I have the opportunity to travel to such diverse places in the world and help a variety of customers market, build or purchase travel technology.

Smartphone Market Share Influences Download versus Mobile Web Debate

In a recent article from Media Post a software application developer from Istanbul, Turkey attending a conference in San Jose, California, voiced his opinion that the US does not understand the importance of the Mobile Web. This article reminded me of the panel discussion I moderated at the PhoCusWright @ITB conference in Berlin earlier this year where the subject of downloadable applications was debated against the advantage of the Mobile Web with a panel of European mobile travel experts. During that discussion a common argument in favor of the Mobile Web approach was the ability to have the application available on all devices with a mobile Web browser. On the side of downloadable apps, the ability to use the GPS location capability and ability to balance the processing load between the network and device were common arguments for the downloadable app approach. Given the explosion of app stores from device manufactures and wireless network providers , it is clear that the downloadable approach has been recognized as an important channel for application delivery. So given this debate, what is the right approach for travel companies who want to build and deploy mobile apps?

The answer lies in the recent 2nd quarter market share numbers published by Canalys. Here is the worldwide smartphone adoption numbers:
From a global perspective the growth of Apple's iPhone is phenomenal. But the true insight comes from the individual regional market share.

Clearly in the US market RIM and Apple dominate the smartphone market.


Contrast this with the EMEA market share












Now compare this with the numbers for Asia Pacific:

As you see Apple and RIM do not even qualify for their own category and are grouped into Other.
The simple conclusion is this:
1) Clearly smartphones are a growing category.
2) Areas of the world dominated by Nokia have not felt the true impact of the smartphone adoption.
3) Travel companies need to understand the specific smartphone adoption market share percentages for their clients when planning a mobile strategy.
On a long term basis as recently voiced by Google, browser-based applications may dominant, but for the short term (3-5 years), downloadable apps will be the most logical path. Keep in mind that smartphone penetration is much greater for frequent travelers who are early adopters of smartphones. Developing applications for the leading smartphone devices: RIM, iPhone and perhaps Windows Mobile is the most logical path to follow. Nokia's recent announcement concerning their new relationship with Microsoft is an obvious attempt by both companies to fight the growth of RIM and iPhone.

Is the Finger Print Reader on the IPhone the Solution for M-commerce and Security?

Apple has filled patents for fingerprint recognition system for the iPhone. This may have major implications for m-commerce and security as well as mobile user interfaces. Fingerprint reader technology has long been used for computer security. The interesting thing about Apple's research is that involves the use of fingerprint patterns to actually identify distinct fingers. The idea is to match specific functions to specific fingers. This table shoes how an index finger press might perform on action (PLAY/STOP) while a middle finger press could fast forward.
Clearly fingerprint reading is coming to mobile phones. When implemented consumers could become comfortable with storing personal information on their mobile phone provided no one can access it due to the fingerprint lock. There has been a great deal of discussion on the concept of a portable profile that could be used across sites to provide more personalized interaction. Given the personal nature of the mobile device, fingerprint controls may provide the needed security to make a portable profile a reality. Travel apps could use specific fingers for targeted tasks such as purchase or rebook. Clearly fingerprintf identification and interaction is something to watch over the next few years.

Datalex Users Conference

Last week I was in Dublin Ireland to participate in the Datalex Users Conference. Datalex is a long time client of Travel Tech Consulting. The conference has a small number of attendees (50-60) consisting of Datalex customers and prospects, but the quality of the attendees and depth of the sessions was very impressive. I had the pleasure of siting next to Jim Young who opened the conference with some provocative observations about industry trends. Jim, most recently of Frontier Airlines can truly be called an industry pioneer. At Frontier he was instrumental in implementing fare families, at IHG he was the executive that pulled inventory from Expedia and then renegotiated a new agreement which included a mix of content and advertising benefits and while at Continental he pioneered the direct distribution model during the turbulent 2005 period. Also in attendance was Mark Rosenberg who recently left Air Canada, where he redefined the distribution landscape with the idea of a fare family and pushed the GDS to accommodate this new model.
Day 1 was all about ancillary revenue. Jay Sorensen, President of IdeaWorks presented the results from a new Ancillary Revenue Guide that he just published. The discussion was lively with different airline executives from American, Continental and Frontier debating the various approaches to ancillary revenue. As an observer, I had to comment that all these ancillary revenue strategies often result in a single customer reaction, paying for services formally free (baggage, meals and in the case of Ryan Air on board toilets!). There is no question in my mind that this current focus on ancillary revenue represents a permanent change in the way all airlines market their product. Fare families (also known as branded fares) breaks the long held practice of yield management by associating services with different fare categories regardless of seat class availability. This will likely impact all sectors from distribution (how GDS and intermediaries display these fare groupings) to corporate travelers (will corporate travel negotiations now center around services as much as discounts?) and even meta-search as the Kayak and Fly.coms of the world struggle with showing airfare comparisons when branded fares associate price with service characteristics.
On Day 2 I gave a talk on mobile. By the response of the audience I realized that the airline executives still do not get the impact of mobile. The main response was about how difficult it would be to sell a mobile project to airline senior management. This was an odd discussion from my vantage point as the prior day's focus on ancillary revenue ties directly in to the opportunity with mobile. It looks like the major carriers will have to catch up on the mobile revolution and risk the possibility that a new intermediary will emerge on the mobile platform adding additional distribution costs and separating the end traveler from the supplier once again.

Sabre's new Tripcase a TripIt Competitor

Sabre has introduced a downloadable iPhone app that competes with TripIt.
It has some similar features but unlike the email parsing capability of TripIt, TripCase automatically imports the PNR information provided it was booked in Sabre. It is currently only available on the iPhone, but additional platforms will be introduced later this year. So is this a TripIt killer? Maybe at some point, but certainly not immediately.
What I find fascinating is the fact that Sabre participated as one of the investors in TripIt's 5.1 million in Series B financing. It looks like Sabre is hedging its bets!

What is a bit ironic is Sabre's market behavior which reminds me a lot of Microsoft back in the 1990s. Back then, Sabre joined other tech companies in challenging Microsoft's ability to control the development of applications because of its ownership of the OS and browser. In those days Microsoft had a solid reputation of partnering with smaller software entities and then coming out with a competitive product. It is unlikely that Sabre Studios who developed TripCase had any connection with the Sabre group that invested in TripIt, but the fact that TripCase is a clear TripIt competitor at least gives one the impression of a one time partner who is now a competitor.

From my perspective I am happy to see a major travel brand embracing the downloadable app store approach to distribution as these types of apps can take advantage of the location awareness of the smartphone delivering new services not available on the Web.

Top Apple Travel Downloads

With Apple approaching 1 billion in downloaded apps, I thought it would be good time to take a look at the top 5 most popular free and paid travel apps on iTunes

PAID.
1. Flight Track - this application from Mobiata is similar to Web based applications such as Flight Stats, but produced by a small mobile app vendor. - Question why doesn't Flight Track have the top position here?


2. Tipulator - Allows you to calculate the appropriate tip for service. Question: Isn't that essentially a calculator?


3. Where The Locals Eat - was created by the dining guide company of the same name. The popularity of this paid app reinforces the demand for local dining advise


4. iFare Finder - is a Kayak like meta-search application. The interesting aspect of iFare Finder is that it is only a mobile app. I could not even find a Website for RIV Creations the creator of iFare Finder, only a blog. Having helped a client last year create a mega-search engine, simple screen scraping will not work as a long term solution. Time will tell the quality of the engine behind iFare Finder.

5. Zagat to Go - At last a familiar brand name!



FREE
1. Google Earth - shows how Google is already dominating the mobile space


2. Urbanspoon - a slot machine that allows the user to chose a type of restaurant randomly


3. YELP - the UGC local restaurant and services



4. WiFi Finder - locate free and paid Wi-Fi networks



5. Choice Hotels Locator - At last a familiar travel brand!


So what does this all mean? Though brands such as Kayak, Hotels.com and Disney do appear in the top 20, a vast number of travel brands are missing. Now multiply this by 1000 and you can start to see how the explosion of app stores from Google, RIM Blackberry, T-Mobile and Nokia will further lead to missed branding opportunities unless the travel industry major players recognize that mobile downloads are here to stay and that they need to be part of every travel company's strategy.

It all about the App Stores

Apple launched its App store in March of 2008 permanently changing the way mobile applications are distributed. Today there are over 15,000 apps in the iPhone store, but there's a lot more to come....

New app stores have been announced from RIM Blackberry, T-Mobile and Google. There has also been some speculation that both Microsoft and Nokia may be launching apps stores.
So what does this mean to the travel industry? Sometime in the not to distant future we may be looking at over 100,000 downloadable applications available from a variety of sources. The percentage of applications that fall into the travel, location based services and navigation categories will likely be high. The travel industry needs to create applications today for the current app stores from Apple, RIM Blackberry and T-Mobile. These apps should not simply be retreads of their current Website but include innovative ways to combine location, context and personalization into delivering unique value to the business and leisure traveler.

Mobile Travel apps for 2009

A major New Years resolution for me this year is to blog at minimum once a week! During the last two months of 2008 I did not blog at all and I am determined not to repeat this long absence. My apologies.

A recent post by Tim Hughes of the BOOT (and VP of Orbitz in Australia) predicted that 2009 will NOT be the year where the travel industry embraces mobile.

I could not disagree more! Having now completed the PhoCuWright "The Future of Mobile Travel" special report, I strongly believe mobile travel applications will flourish in 2009 despite the global economic crisis. The two primary drivers of this mobile trend are the adoption of smartphones and the implementation of next generation networks (3G, LTE & WiMAX). The research clearly showed a correlation between frequent business travelers and smartphone adoption. Take a look at these two slides from our Special Report:





The key statistic here is that as of November 3, 2008 18.9% of consumers are now carrying a smartphone.










Compare that with our research results which found that 71% of Frequent Business Travelers own a smartphone. Additional research showed that 90% of frequent business travelers have owned their smartphones for less than 2 years, showing that smartphone adoption is a recent trend. You combine this with the explosive growth of 3rd party apps stores from not only Apple, but RIM Blackberry, Google and T-Mobile and it is clear that 2009 will see tremendous growth in downloadable travel specific applications.

These applications will be location and contextually relevant. The affinity between emerging mobile technology and frequent travelers will change the business and leisure travel experience 2009.

The First Android Phone versus the iPhone

T-Mobile introduced the first Google Android phone this week. This long anticipated new platform combines elements of the iPhone (touch screen) and the Blackberry (pull out keyboard). Since I began researching mobile technology for the "Future of Mobile Travel" special report from PhoCusWright, I have been saying that the iPhone is a game changer. This message became more real to me as I purchased an iPhone earlier this month. Like any device it has its pluses and minuses. The same is true with the new Google Android platform. Both of these phones are shifts in the way people view their mobile device. Here's my brief take on the two devices and how they will impact the travel experience:
1) The iPhone - The most exciting part of the iPhone is not the phone itself but the combination of the phone's capability and the large number of inexpensive apps available through the Apple App store. Though downloading apps is nothing new, bypassing the "deck" of the mobile carrier presents a more intuitive, flexible and direct environment to load applications. There are currently 175 apps listed in the travel category and another 121 apps listed in the navigation category. The simple concept of locating yourself though GPS and looking at your immediate surroundings for restaurants, shopping or movie theatres is made simple by apps such as "Nearby" or "Where To". Surprisingly few travel companies with the exception of the online folks such as Travelocity or TripIt have released iPhone specific apps (though a lot more are on the way). Once travel companies start realizing the ease of distribution available to iPhone users I anticipate many more traditional brands populating the travel category. The iPhone is a mediocre email device particularly for those Blackberry thumb users who can type long letters rapidly from the phone. The email application works fine for me as I normally wait to respond (unless it is an urgent message) until I power up my laptop or desktop. I had no trouble connecting the iPhone to my MS Outlook. The Web browser is another strong element, but even with the larger screen and ability to expand using the two finger pinch, browsing on the iPhone is much improved from other devices but NOT a replacement for the Web. Our research has uncovered the fact that many travel companies are simply porting their current Web pages onto mobile devices and even with the iPhone's improved graphics, booking travel on the mobile Web browser can be challenging. The other approach of downloaded apps seems to be a much preferred way to penetrate the iPhone market. A strength that Apple has verses Google is the control of the hardware and software. The hardware control includes the firmware (software that is embedded on the hardware) giving greater consistent performance. The message here is simple, all travel companies should develop applications for the iPhone.
2) The T-Mobile G-Phone wants to be both a Blackberry and an iPhone. Surprisingly, currently the T-Mobile version only connects up with Gmail and in fact you need to have a Gmail account to use the G-phone. No doubt Microsoft Exchange may become a future capability, but until it does the G-Phone cannot replace the Blackberry. I will hold off my full evaluation of the device until I actually see the physical phone. My sense is that the Google Android platform can match the iPhone look and feel and simplicity of Web browsing. How apps are created and distributed will be a key element of the success. According to Strategy Analytics, the Android mobile operating system will account for 4 percent of all fourth quarter smartphone sales in the U.S., a small % but likely to grow. If the Android operating system spreads quickly and if developers gravitate to the application development environment, the same ease of use of downloading apps for the Android powered systems may further cement this process as the preferred delivery of travel specific apps, provided a central store is created. If the carriers remain in control your ability to download apps may be limited by the traditional control the carriers have put on new app distribution. The lack of control over the firmware may be an Achilles heal for the G-phone but it is too early to determine if the need to work with a variety of firmware is truly a market inhibiting problem.

SITA Air Transport IT Summit

I am in Brussels today speaking at the SITA Air Transport Summit. My talk is part of session called "Getting ready for your digital traveler". I will be speaking on Mobile based services in travel- where are we today ? Challenges and opportunities".
I was fortunate to share a van ride this morning with Yemmi Agbebi, Director of Portfolio Marketing from SITA based in the UK. Yemmi was directly involved with the Bluetooth test at Manchester Airport. Essentially SITA working with the airport installed Bluetooth stations that enabled various services for travelers. Announcements are made every few minutes instructing travelers to go to a Bluetooth area and and agree to receive messages regarding their flight. Research showed that the average traveler checks the flight board 4-5 before going to the gate. By enabling the Bluetooth communication, travelers received information about their flight lessening the anxiety associated with the boarding process. The most interesting aspect of this test is the impact on airport stores. Once enable and accepted by the user, airport stores send electronic coupons with bar codes that offer discounts to items at the shops. So how did the test go? (note I am quoting these stats by memory so please treat them as estimates). Approximately 7.2 million passengers go through the Manchester airport on an annual basis. 42% of them enabled this Bluetooth connection. The average expenditure per passenger increased from approximately 12 BPS to 16 BPS. The general feedback has been very positive as customers appreciate the information about boarding and the discount offers from the airport merchants.
This is another example of how Europe is way ahead of the US in mobile technology. Considering the current economic pressure on airlines and airports, the Manchester mobile test proves that mobile marketing can have an impact on consumer behavior.

Is History Repeating Itself with Google Android?

I am old enough to remember the early days of personal computing. In fact the first Mac I worked on did not have its own hard drive and thus required switching out floppies to do any simple computing task. My first non-Mac "personal" computer was a suitcase sized Compaq which ran DOS and Lotus 1-2-3. The advantage of the Mac GUI was obvious. When the first version of Windows was released it contained many Mac like functions and through later releases soon became the dominate GUI for PCs. Despite Apple's initial innovation, Windows based-PCs are the standard.

I am starting to question whether history is repeating itself on mobile devices. There is no dispute that Apple's iPhone represents a game changer in the world of mobile technology. With the first practical mobile Web browser, the iPhone delivers a vastly improved Internet mobile experience, though the telephone aspect of the device is still in need of enhancement. The Google mobile platform is in its infancy, but we should see Android based mobile phones by Q4 of this year. Google has announced an agreement with the Open Handset Alliance, a consortium of 34 handset manufacturers, carriers and chipmakers that have said they plan to support Android products and services. As an open-development platform, third party applications will flourish. Apple's iPhone is clearly the innovator, but the market will likely be flooded with iPhone clones with 18-24 months. Will the Android platform do to the mobile phone what Microsoft Windows did to the PC market? The answer is not completely clear as the mobile industry has many operating systems - Symbian, Palm and of course Windows Mobile. There are also a variety of development environments including Java and Brew. In addition to an innovative design, Apple's iPhone also shifted a significant part of the revenue from AT&T to Apple, something very much on the minds of all mobile carriers. This economic shift plus the power of Google to dominate the mobile market is something to watch as Google Android enabled phones appear later this year.

QuickMobile

I had the opportunity to attend the Dow Jones Wireless Innovation Conference last week in Redwood Shores, CA. The event is primarily designed to connect new mobile start-ups with funding, but the show had some interesting panels where today's hot mobile topics where debated (e.g. open systems, Internet devices, LBS). More on panel discussions coming soon in later blog entries. There were some interesting companies showcased at the event.

I had the pleasure of meeting Patrick Payne CEO of a new Vancouver BC start-up called Quickmobile. The company has developed a mobile marketing platform specifically designed for the global travel and tourism industry. The application enable the delivery of coupon offer to the traveler.

I was very impressed with company's capabilities and approach. Offers that are received are personalized, relevant, timely and valuable to the consumer sent on an opt-in basis only. Quickmobile was able to show how an SMS message can be sent that when accepted sends a bar coded coupon to the user. How can this be used? Here are just a few examples:

• Hoteliers - could use this method to send coupons for hotel services such as a discount at the restaurant, bar or spa to promote on property services
• Travel Management companies or leisure travel agents can promote "long tail" services (restaurant discounts, activity promotions) to increase loyalty and add to traveler convenience.
  

Mobile advertising will explode over the next few years. The key to mobile promotional campaigns is giving the consumer control over what they receive and making sure the offer is relevant. Quickmobile understands this need and is a company to watch.

Sprice: Meta Search for Static Packages

I had a great conversation this morning with Jerome Thil the CEO of the French meta-travel search company Sprice. In Europe and other parts of the world purchasing static vacation packages has been the norm long before the advent of the Web. That buyer behavior has changed a bit with the concept of dynamic packaging, but roughly 80% of travel-related searches by European consumers still focuses on static packages. The Sprice meta-search capability is currently only available on the Spice French site:



For those not up on their French the "Sejours" button starts the travel search for packages. The package meta-search capability took 4 years to develop and uses an interesting technology approach to capture the unstructured and non standardized content from package seller Websites. Rather than using intelligent agents to screen scrape the site, Sprice built an extraction application as an extension to the open source Mozilla Firefox browser. As a Sprice developer uses this modified browser to identify fields on a given site, the extension records the session and thus captures the structure of the site. When the user enters a search query, behind the scenes, the Sprice technology sends these knowledgeable browsers to the sites tracked and extracts the information. Please note that this is a fairly simplistic way to describe the technology as cleansing and parsing the data is a major step in providing consistent comparisons across sites and thus the 4 year development cycle to bring this to market.

Comparative shopping is at the heart of the Web. Rather than focusing on air or hotel shopping as many competitors are already doing (e.g. Kayak, Mobissimo, Farecast), Sprice is focused on the package segment providing important functionality to markets that still predominantly purchase pre-packed tours. User generated content and mobile applications are on the near Horizon for Sprice, particular as the company has a long standing relationship providing the travel channel for the large European Telco, Orange.

iPhone SDK: The Good News and Bad News

Yesterday's announcement concerning the availability of the iPhone SDK (Software Development Kit) is significant for potential travel application developers. The iPhone has shifted the focus from cell phones to mobile Internet devices with the first full function mobile Web browser. Applications written for the iPhone can be downloaded directly from the Internet bypassing the traditional walled garden of the wireless providers. The announcement specifically emphasized application development for the business market to compete with RIM's Blackberry, the leading corporate smartphone. Venture capitalist firm Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers announced it was creating the $100 million iFund to help new developers for the Apple handheld platform. As a result there is a lot money on the table to encourage developers to create corporate oriented apps. Are you listening travel software vendors? That's the good news.

The bad news goes to the heart of what Apple is about: proprietary software. Though the iPhone design is truly revolutionary, the corporate strategy of a proprietary operating platform environment may constrain development. There is fear among developers that Apple will limit the ability for third-party developers to distribute apps, in the same way they did with the iPod gaming market In addition the ability to write the application once and have it shared across devices is impossible with this proprietary approach. For example many of the current mobile applications are written in Java which can run any device that has a Java Virtual machine (JVM). This week Apple also announced that they will not support a Flash Virtual machine on the iPhone limiting the use of Macromedia's Flash, a very popular way developers have added animation and desktop functionality to Web apps. In addition, the Telcos are not happy with Apple as the iPhone has eliminated the revenue associated with the control over application distribution that has been a driver for the walled garden approach. A slew of new iPhone like devices is already hitting the market with many more on the near horizon. Apple has again been pivotal in the development of new platforms as it was in the creation of the personal computer, but may fall victim to the same low marketshare fate if open applications environments such as Google's Android platform take hold allowing a more practical path for cross platform mobile application development. I don't believe we'll see the iPhone's share of the mobile market diminish as it did in the early days of the PC, but limiting third party application development is never a good thing in the age of open source computing.

WiMax verses 3G, 4G and Beyond

The Tech industry has been talking about ubiquitous computing for some time. Any observer would agree that it has become common place for business people to multi-task - e.g. listening to a speaker while reading one's email, but the fact is that this only the beginning of our always connected future. An interesting battle has emerged between the traditional telecom players who are offering 3G (Third generation) wireless networks with some now talking about 4G capabilities. An alternative trend is the emergence of WiMax, a broadband technology that could be thought of as Wi-Fi on steroids. With telecom and tech companies such as Sprint and Intel embracing WiMax, many perceive the wireless roadmap as a "fork in the road". Rather than 3G verses WiMax, a blending of the two technologies seems to be more likely. Devices such as the Apple I-Phone with built in WiFi point to a hybrid future where both traditional telecom and WiMax networks co-exist is more likely. The wild card in this game is Google. For many months the blogosphere has been chasing rumors that Google is building their own mobile device that will compete head to head with traditional offerings from Nokia, LG and Motorola as well as the Apple iPhone. No matter which network becomes dominant the days of the always connected traveler are here to stay and all travel companies must develop m-commerce strategies to reflect this fact.